Season 4, Post 10: Bending the diabetes curve
The statistics are stark: 1 in 10 adults globally live with diabetes currently, but within less than 25 years, this figure will rise to 1 in 8. Put another way, by 2045 over 780m adults are expected to be living with diabetes. Diabetes is associated with shorter life expectancy, and the correlation with other co-morbidities (such as cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease) is high. Further, 1 in 2 adults go undiagnosed.
None of this makes for cheery reading, but the good news is that there are companies trying to solve these challenges. Among these, Novo Nordisk – the source for the above data – stands at the forefront. We were in Denmark last week to meet with them (as well as some other businesses) and to learn what they’re up to. The key message we took away was that the “diabetes curve”, to paraphrase Novo, can only be “bent”, and the problem solved, through a combination of prevention via partnership, the provision of affordable access and ongoing innovation. We concur.
Begin with early prevention. Addressing childhood obesity is a priority. Novo reminded us that around 125m children live with obesity. The transition from childhood obesity to type-2 diabetes is unfortunately high. Against this background, Novo has partnered with UNICEF in an initiative called “Cities Changing Diabetes”, which works on the design of healthy food systems and the engagement of community organisations to help minimise the risks of chronic disease. Better food provision will only take you so far, and for existing people living with diabetes, affordability of access to drugs is crucial. Novo has set a $3 ceiling (previously it had been $4) for human insulin vials offered in 76 lower income countries globally. As a result, more than 5m patients were reached with access who might not otherwise have received it last year. This is encouraging, although there is still clearly more to be done.
Constant innovation lies at the heart of how we seek to understand every future trend we follow. There has been a continued focus at Novo in this respect, evidenced by its pipeline of products and its increasing use of digital solutions (often in partnership with other businesses, such as Abbott and Dexcom). Novo indicated at our meeting that the direction of travel for research and development spend was up. If bending the diabetes curve represents one important challenge, then using innovation to ensurebetter food provision represents another task for the world (albeit not for Novo): data from the United Nations serves to highlight that over 720m people globally face hunger, while a total of 2.3bn lack access to adequate food.
9 March 2022
The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Heptagon Capital is an investor in Novo Nordisk. The author of this piece has no personal direct investment in the business. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.
Alex Gunz, Fund Manager
Photo taken by Heptagon, banner typo Novo Nordisk’s own
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