Season 7, Post 30: Greatly exaggerated rumours
Mark Twain is the source of many wonderful quotes. Your author’s favourite is about how even if history may not repeat itself, it can still rhyme. Consider the dotcom boom-and-bust and then the current AI bubble. Twain, however, never actually said “the rumours of my death are greatly exaggerated.” It was a careless misquotation on the part of the press (more here). Nonetheless, the expression continues to be deployed regularly. Only last week, Spencer Rascoff, Chief Executive of Match Group noted that “rumours of the online dating category being dead are patently false.”
Mr Rascoff evidently has a self-serving interest in making such an observation, but the evidence does back up his assertion. On the same call (relating to Match’s second quarter earnings, which exceeded consensus expectations), he highlighted how around 100m messages are sent daily across Match’s platforms – Tinder, Hinge and others. Even if some users may be dissatisfied with the online dating category, they certainly haven’t fully left it. Indeed, Hinge saw almost 20% annual growth in its monthly average users over the first half of 2025.
The key message from Match is that online dating as a category “is not going away”. As the market leader, it behoves Match to “make things better.” This point was emphasised by the company’s Chief Financial Officer, with whom we also spoke recently. He highlighted how members of Gen-Z (those aged 13 to 28) “use tech in every other way” in their lives. To find matches ought not to be any different. However, their expectations are different to those of the prior, Millennial generation. Less pressure, more fun and greater safety matter.
So what’s changed with online dating? Match highlighted a series of initiatives. Users of Tinder now have a double date option, which has anecdotally proved a success. Interactive matching – which comprises more than a swipe and offers a series of curated questions designed to drive a higher success rate – has been trialled in New Zealand and will follow soon elsewhere. AI is making a difference too. Redesigned algorithms in the background are driving better matches overall as well as weeding out bad actors. Improving trust and safety will help repair the perception of online dating. All this matters. After the Boxing Day to Valentine’s Day period, the summer apparently is the next busiest time for new online romance.
13 August 2025
The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Heptagon Capital is an investor in Match Group. The author of this piece has no personal direct investment in the business. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.
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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager
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